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ISEE Whitepapers

Thank you for your interest in our latest whitepaper, “ISEE vs. DJIA in 2008,” in which we analyzed the end-of-day values of our ISE Sentiment Index® (ISEE) against the performance of the DJIA in 2008 with some interesting findings. Previous whitepapers are also available below.

 
 
Past analyses of ISEE values vs. market indices (DJIA and S&P 500) seemed to suggest that clusters of consecu¬tive ISEE highs or lows may appear to signal changes in market direction, and usually the direction of the turn was contrarian to investor sentiment. By analyzing the data for ISEE vs. DJIA for all of 2008, we see this same pattern. It appears that the ISEE Index may be a good tool and useful contrarian indicator for potentially identifying turns in the market when clusters of extreme readings appear to occur.
   
As an investor tool, ISEE is good at not only determining investor sentiment, but was also useful in 2007 at highlighting changes in market direction when a pattern of “clusters” of highs or lows across consecutive days was established. For the first eight months of 2008 we performed the same analysis, but compared ISEE to both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500. We plotted these values and found four consecutive highs, two of which were “clustered” near each other, and four consecutive lows, two of which were “clustered” near each other, that appeared to mark a change in market direction.
 
ISEE vs. DJIA in 2007 Whitepaper
With 250 trading days in 2007, we focused on 25 "high" and 23 "low" ISEE values (two lows were discarded because there were seven days with the same values) to examine any correlation between ISEE highs and lows and market activity. We plotted these values and found three clusters of consecutive highs and lows that appeared to mark changes in market direction.
 
 
About ISEE
The ISE Sentiment Index (ISEE) is a unique put/call value calculated using only opening long customer transactions to determine bullish/bearish market direction. This calculation methodology has been especially useful in determining investor sentiment at points of extreme highs and lows, as noted in several articles found at www.ise.com/isee.